26
Dec
2009
Prediction Book
Through some bizzaro twist of fate my major study has stopped being about the future of the whole world, and has focused in quite a lot. I’ll post about this a bit more later on, but as a very quick explanation of what I’m on about…
Designers make decisions about what to do based on what they know. So what happens if they know wrong?
The ability to ‘know thyself‘ can be described in modern parlance as calibration. This skill varies greatly per person across all their activities i.e. I may be very well calibrated about my ability to complete a particular grade of climb, but very poorly calibrated about the length of time to complete a list of features in a spreadsheet.
This becomes important when making a decision about something really important. If you are over confident, then you might make some really big mistakes!
I’ve started testing my calibration on some real events using Prediction Book, it’ll be really interesting to see how well insulated from reality I actually am! Log in and make some predictions of your own and lets pump up the amount of data available to munch through!