18
Apr
2011
Hydraulic economics
I walked to and from work today and listened to Arnold Kling talking to Econtalk about patterns of sustainable specialisation and trade. Quite apart from how enjoyable it is to be able to walk to work in the sun, it makes my brain tick over nicely.
They were discussing why certain economic models didn’t work, and while they were pontificating about some details it occurred to me that you might be able to think of mathematical models that aproximate the phenomena that economics is concerned with by using fluids.
Straight up mathematical models give one, absolute, answer. It is as if they worked over infinite time, and took an infinitely large sample. Most things take time to settle down; I first came across this idea when I was thinking a lot about search methods and writing genetic algorithms. I was frustrated that the computer wouldn’t spit out the answer to my question, but instead spiraled towards a best guess eventualy.
This morning’s idea was that an economic or physical system could be modeled as a hydraulic system filled with a load of different fluids of different viscosities. So as you try to move from one value to another it takes time to get there, and this lag causes stresses in the system, preventing some things from happening, causing asymmetries in others, and maybe even forcing things to happen that wouldn’t otherwise happen.
Not being especially mathematical I haven’t been able to formulate this properly I’ll leave it to your imagination, but it make it easier for me to think about things.
24
Apr
2010
architects’ pay?
I’ve just posted this on one of the discussion pages of the Facebook group Architects against low pay.
It’ll probably get shot down as a load of neo-con rubbish, but this is one of the few topics that gets me really animated.
I think that it is fairly clear that anyone can design a building (here’s an example).
I think that a much more pertinent question would be ‘can anyone design a building well?’
This is a much more difficult issue. An absolute base level of competence is mandated by the building regulations, and then any value that a client derives from the designer of their building is a bonus.
I don’t think I could disagree more strongly with protection of the role of architects. Architects are currently (theoretically) well trained individuals, who should be able to deliver a service (designing a building) competently. When I wasn’t so bald I would get my hair cut at by hairdresser; during the process of cutting my hair we would often discuss the three years of training they had undergone to become a hairdresser. I’ve never asked to see a hairdresser’s certification, I have always been happy that their past record of cutting hair well is feeding them, and therefore they must be good enough. If I liked them I would go back again. If I was getting a particularly important haircut (maybe I’m going to be made prime minister) but I’ve never seen the work of this particular hairdresser I might ask to see some photos of previous work, or even talk to some previous clients.
To cut hair one needn’t be a part of any professional organisation. Membership of one might however add more credence to their skills, but there is no formal requirement.
If there were governmental hair cutting requirements, then if I got a non-compliant haircut, then I would have a way of seeking some recompense for my terrible bouffant. If the hairdresser was not a member of the professional organisation then in future I might tend towards using registered cutters.
The point that I’m inelegantly trying to make here is about choice and freedom. By mandating that only an architect is able to do certain things, you remove the choices of people who want to engage someone to do those things. What this means is the now there is no reason to choose an architect over a non architect as there aren’t any non architects. Therefore the name ‘architect’ no longer attracts a premium.
I’ve ranted at length about this before, and if pushed I’d be happy to again, but in a nutshell the argument goes:
By removing the legislation around who is allowed to design buildings, and increasing the requirement on the performance* then clients will naturally gravitate to whoever is BETTER at designing buildings.
If we continue to cultivate an ivory tower, then there is a good chance that the tower will stay where it is, and everyone else will have moved on.
*many metrics, cabe does quite a good job on the design quality side, but building regs need to be more stringent
1
Dec
2009
Let’s Take the Con out of Econometrics – Ed Leamer
I was trying to find a copy of this paper as it seems to get referenced whenever anyone talks about uncertainty, but all I could find was a pdf scan from JSTOR. So I indulged my compulsions and set the reading order in the original pdf (here), but the pixelation was just too much for my delicate brain. So of course I redid it. Thanks to the wonders of OCR and hard graft… I’ve got a simple pdf, and an open office writer(odt) file. these look a bit crusty, so there is a nice indd file on it’s way, but that’ll have to wait until another day.
The general gist of the paper is that the real world is too complex to model in all it’s infinite detail, and experimental bias will creep in, but if we are smart about it, and realise that it is happening then we can mitigate against it.
Don’t be put off by the bit with equations in the middle, that can be skipped, and the message still comes out clearly.
there is a preview after the break Read the rest of this entry »
13
Oct
2009
The future is important – I’m going to live there soon.
Most people will have realised that I don’t tend to do things the normal way. This extends to education too – I’ve taken 4 years off in the midst of a 5 year course (and 2 more before it even started). See this old post.
This year I’m back at school to do the last year before I become a ‘real person’ and start paying council tax etc. Oxford Brookes has a terrific system where they’ve figured out that you are probably about sick of design studios by the end of your 4th year, and are ripe for a bit of – shh don’t say it too loudly – learning.
This is my draft proposal for what I’m going to do. It is a bit woolly, as it covers up that I really don’t actually know what it is that I am going to do, and it is only barely related to architecture.
The 21st century is hailed by many as a ‘make or break’ time for humanity, the tipping point between a technological utopia and a crushing blow to our species’ capacity to flourish. While every effort must be made to steer a path towards a bright future, contingencies for both extremes, as well as the vast, but discontinuous, range of circumstances and possibilities between must be considered.
Only in a very perverse utopia, or particularly devastating catastrophe, does architecture cease to be pertinent (the importance of architects is less certain!).The risk of global catastrophe, ranging from super volcanoes and runaway global warming to doomsday machines or bio-terrorism, is non trivial. The contingencies in place to contain or manage these events may (if successful) affect societies as much or more than the event itself. Conversely the potential for technology to enhance our lives beyond recognition is considerable. Indeed, it has already been realised. Genetic modification, cognitive enhancement and life extension are just a few of the possibilities.
With these great threats and opportunities come ethical questions about how, and whether, to manage the risks that the implementation of these opportunities (or whether to implement them at all!). While forecasting has its perils, as recent events in the financial sector have shown, it is foolhardy not to prepare to manage the outcomes of potential cataclysms. The continually diverging tree of all possible events makes the odds of a particular event, even in the relatively near future, vanishingly small. We need better tools. I intend learn how to develop a better understanding of the future, and the methods that can be used to improve predictions. Architecture is one of our most persistent projections into the future, there ought to be some consideration of what that future is going be like.
If getting past the next 90 years is really as fraught as is claimed (disasters, divergent societies, etc.) then we have a lot of work to do to get there, but it would make me feel better if I had a bit of an idea of what we’ll find when we do.
If you have any thoughts on things I ought to be looking at then let me know.
2
May
2009
GCR videos are up
The Future of Humanity Institute has just posted the videos from the Global Catastrophic Risks Conference conference that they had in Oxford last year.I missed it, so I’m pretty excited about getting to see these. I’m working my way through the accompanying book, so hopefully the videos will clarify things thati’m struggling with in the text.Below are links to video files of some of the lectures. Read the rest of this entry »