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	<title>notion parallax &#187; future</title>
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	<link>http://www.notionparallax.co.uk/blog</link>
	<description>what happens when ideas slide past each other</description>
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		<title>H+ Conference in Melbourne</title>
		<link>http://www.notionparallax.co.uk/blog/index.php/2011/05/715/</link>
		<comments>http://www.notionparallax.co.uk/blog/index.php/2011/05/715/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 22 May 2011 08:12:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Ben</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[future]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[geek]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[h+]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[transumanist]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[trips]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.notionparallax.co.uk/blog/?p=715</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I&#8217;m going to try to get down for this. It looks like it&#8217;ll be interesting!]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://humanityplus.org.au/conference/"><img src="http://humanityplus.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/hplus-au-summit-2011-flier3.jpg" alt="" style="width:500px;" /></a></p>
<p>I&#8217;m going to try to get down for this. It looks like it&#8217;ll be interesting!</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>space hacking</title>
		<link>http://www.notionparallax.co.uk/blog/index.php/2011/05/space-hacking/</link>
		<comments>http://www.notionparallax.co.uk/blog/index.php/2011/05/space-hacking/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 09 May 2011 09:29:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Ben</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[architecture]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[future]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[research]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[tracking]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[work]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.notionparallax.co.uk/blog/?p=669</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[As my 200th post I was going to write some stuff about ethics and dolphins, but Wikipedia has already done the lions share of the work so it&#8217;s left me feeling rather unnecessary. I was considering this as I came up the escalator at Town Hall station today (my legs are tired from a long [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As my 200<sup>th</sup> post I was going to write some stuff about ethics and dolphins, but Wikipedia has already done the lions share of the work so it&#8217;s left me feeling rather unnecessary. I was considering this as I came up the escalator at <a title="The Town Hall Wikipedia page" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Town_Hall_railway_station">Town Hall</a> station today (my legs are tired from a <a title="28km in 1 day, ouch" href="http://www.wildwalks.com/bushwalking-and-hiking-in-nsw/royal-national-park/coast-track-bundeena-to-otford.html ">long walk</a> yesterday so I didn&#8217;t feel like walking in). I was on the right and walking up the steps behind all the other karoshi who were doing the same, trudging hurriedly towards our desks. When I got to the top the girl in front of me stopped, did a sharp right turn and headed off to the ticket barriers; this made me stop and presumably made the person behind me stop. This sort of blockage never really stops anything, but acts more as a <em><a title="Hydraulic economics" href="http://www.notionparallax.co.uk/blog/index.php/2011/04/hydraulic-economics/">constriction</a></em>. This sort of constriction seems to slow down the flow of people through the station, which reduces the station&#8217;s efficiency. (If you assume that the job of a train station is it&#8217;s obvious one, i.e. to move people about quickly, get them from where they are to where they want to be by making the journey from their entry point to exit point as time-short/distance-short as possible.)</p>
<p><span id="more-669"></span></p>
<p>This all felt like a bit of an epiphany, a keystone that made a lot of things that I&#8217;ve been thinking about recently make sense. There must be small things that we can do that make buildings &#8216;better&#8217;. Defining <em>better</em> is an extremely fraught enterprise, but we can make a start along the axes of more profitable?, more enjoyable?, more healthy?, and add more subtlety as we go along. This feels like hacking, not making grand gestures that are based on what we think we know, but tinkering until things work a bit better, gradually finding ways to make spaces that &#39;work&#39; better than they do now.</p>
<p>This all seems to merge my recent interest in cognative biases, behavioral economics, <a href="http://www.notionparallax.co.uk/blog/index.php/2011/01/major-study-for-those-with-a-lot-of-patience/">overconfidence in designers</a>, <a href="http://blog.xkcd.com/2009/09/02/urinal-protocol-vulnerability/" title="I really want to make some measurements to test this theory!">making measurements of behaviour of people in spaces</a> and <a href="http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/03/homo-hipocritus.html">Hanson&#39;s Homo Hypocritus</a> (to name a few of the things that I&#39;ve been looking at) with a project that I did with <a href="http://angelawoda.wordpress.com/">Angela Woda</a> when I was studying at RMIT under <a href="http://www.projectfreerange.com/">Barnaby Bennet</a> and <a href="http://www.sial.rmit.edu.au/People/mburry+Biography.php">Mark Burry</a> which after much &quot;fuckwittery&quot; (Mark&#39;s words) ended up being about improving transport efficiency by changing user behaviour.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.notionparallax.co.uk/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/feetonplatformanim.gif"><img src="http://www.notionparallax.co.uk/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/feetonplatformanim.gif" alt="" title="How interactive platforms could improve transport efficiency; a sketch" width="500" height="374" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-690" /></a></p>
<p>The general thesis was that by making the transport system more efficient that the need to build new stations would be alleviated. Relliance on public transport increases with an increasingly urbanised population, and new stations are expensive, and often not very useful<sup class='footnote'><a href='#fn-669-1' id='fnref-669-1'>1</a></sup> for improving the efficiency of the system. we proposed that they best way to improve the efficiency of a train station was to find a way to encourage the passengers to behave in a way that maximised their efficiency, and minimised their obstruction of each other<sup class='footnote'><a href='#fn-669-2' id='fnref-669-2'>2</a></sup>.</p>
<p>The experiment that popped into my head as my path leading from the escalator to the concourse was blocked by the turning girl was very simple; what if there was a barrier at the top of the escalator?</p>
<p>My hypothesis is that there is a time penalty associated with sharp turn angles, and that therefore some sort of barrier would allow for a greater flow of passengers. More specifically, the mixture of turning and non-turning passengers slows everyone down to turning speed.</p>
<p>
        <img src="http://www.notionparallax.co.uk/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/spaceHacking_0000_Layer-2.jpg" /></p>
<p>There are two possible directions from the top of the escalator, so at the moment there are two types of people when it comes to getting off the escalator<sup class='footnote'><a href='#fn-669-3' id='fnref-669-3'>3</a></sup>. The other main problem is people who stand on the right, apparantly unaware of the social norm that encourages them to stand on the left and walk on the right; signage and loud huffing seems to solve this in London, but I think that people are too laid back/conservative to huff or use signs here in Sydney.</p>
<p>
        <img src="http://www.notionparallax.co.uk/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/spaceHacking_0002_Layer-1.jpg" /></p>
<p>If the streams were to be split gently rather than in the abrupt manner that they are now then they would allow more people to escape the escalator before they clashed at the turn point. This would probably only delay the blockage, but the increased turn radius might make it less damaging.</p>
<p>
        <img src="http://www.notionparallax.co.uk/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/spaceHacking_0001_Layer-3.jpg" /></p>
<p>From drawing these diagrams I&#8217;ve come to the opinion that probably the important things in this are going to be </p>
<ul>
<li>The amount of separation between the streams before the &#39;turners&#39; start to slow down. They need to be able to walk past each other before they start to act differently.</li>
<li>The radius of their turn, sharper turns are likely to result in more of a slow-down.</li>
<li>Being able to prevent people from standing on the right and thereby impeding the flow of passengers.</li>
</ul>
<p>I think that actually performing this experiment would be pretty straight forward, the audience passing the top of the escalator can easily be tracked with a thermitrak camera, and then some method of comparing actual flow with theoretical maximum flow could be developed. The conditions could be varied quite simply with some sort of heavy barrier. Lots of variations and lots of data follows!</p>
<hr />
<p>What a massive rant! What is the point of all that? I know I&#39;ve probably run into the <acronym title="Too long; didn't read">tl;dr.</acronym> realm, but I felt that I needed to get at least one tractable example of what I&#39;ve been thinking about. Lets see if any of this comes to fruition over the next few months/years!</p>
<p>
        <iframe id='xmindshare_embedviewer' src='http://xmind.net/share/_embed/ben_doherty/my-work/' width='500px' height='300px' frameborder='0' scrolling='no'></iframe>
    </p>
<p>(this is probably going to evlove as we go along!)</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.spacehijackers.co.uk/">Space Hijackers</a> in London do this sort of thing, but from a more activist perspective. I bet that there is loads of work on this sort of thing already just waiting to be uncovered if I actually started looking!</p>
<div class='footnotes'>
<div class='footnotedivider'></div>
<ol>
<li id='fn-669-1'>I&#39;d imagine that the most efficient system would be a bit like a chair lift where there is a continuous supply of transport from <strong>A</strong>, where people <em>are</em>, to <strong>B</strong>, where they want to <em>go</em>. This isn&#39;t particularly good, as it would mean that there could only be 2 places on the system, and it is highly unrealistic. That said, I&#39;d imagine that <a href="http://twitter.com/#!/albcorp">Andrew</a> could bring some lattice theory to bear on it and prove me wrong without much effort. <span class='footnotereverse'><a href='#fnref-669-1'>&#8617;</a></span></li>
<li id='fn-669-2'>It would be tempting to assume that the most efficient systems would be entirely empty except for a single passenger, but from my experience of traveling on the London Underground there is a significant speed up to be had from the flock behavour at desision points, the ineficiency seems to be introducd at constrictions or speed changes like escalators and platform entrances <span class='footnotereverse'><a href='#fnref-669-2'>&#8617;</a></span></li>
<li id='fn-669-3'>Ignoring the people who, after climbing the steps at a reasonable clip all the way up, for some reason stop at the top just prior to getting off. I assume that this is due to some sort of failing that means that they are unable to judge depth properly when moving, or because they can&#39;t cope with the change of speed. Who knows, these people are probably unsalvagable. <span class='footnotereverse'><a href='#fnref-669-3'>&#8617;</a></span></li>
</ol>
</div>
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		<title>Going off paper?</title>
		<link>http://www.notionparallax.co.uk/blog/index.php/2011/04/going-off-paper/</link>
		<comments>http://www.notionparallax.co.uk/blog/index.php/2011/04/going-off-paper/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 23 Apr 2011 05:10:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Ben</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[books]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[future]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kindle]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[phone]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Reading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[technology]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.notionparallax.co.uk/blog/?p=655</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Once upon a time  the only ones glued to their phone screens in public were spotty teenagers playing snake. I suppose I got a glimpse of the future on the Tokyo subway a while ago with everyone glued to their screens reading the news (I presume, it was all in Japanese). Recently I&#8217;ve been reading [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img class="alignright" src="http://images.reviewcentre.com/sent-in/item4043.jpg" alt="Snake screenshot" width="154" height="100" />Once upon a time  the only ones glued to their phone screens in public were spotty teenagers playing <a title="A history of 'Snake'" href="http://conversations.nokia.com/2009/01/20/history-of-nokia-part-2-snake/">snake</a>. I suppose I got a glimpse of the future on the Tokyo subway a while ago with everyone glued to their screens reading the news (I presume, it was all in Japanese).</p>
<p>Recently I&#8217;ve been reading a lot of blog posts on my phone through the <a href="http://www.appbrain.com/app/greader-%28google-reader-%7C-rss%29/com.noinnion.android.greader.reader">gReader app</a>. Even in short journeys I can knock off a couple of posts, and it feels like I&#8217;m actually participating in things as they happen. (I&#8217;m aware that this is an illusion, but it is one that I&#8217;m happy to maintain.)</p>
<p><img class="alignleft" src="http://g-ecx.images-amazon.com/images/G/01/ciu/b0/72/9164024128a0cd9ded219010.L.jpg" alt="Guliver's travels book cover" width="205" height="284" />So the phone screen is a good place for short form essays and journalism, and at fist blush it seems that it works for long form too. I&#8217;ve been reading <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Gullivers-Travels-ebook/dp/B000JQUZ3W">Gulliver&#8217;s travels</a> through the Kindle app, which has actually been surprisingly easy. The screen makes the columns a good width for reading fast, and the page turns are easier than turning an actual page. This means that I can put the phone on a table, hold my head in one hand, a cup of tea in the other, and read.</p>
<p>The ability to condense a library of books into one small space is pretty cool, as is the ability to look stuff up in a dictionary or on Wikipedia. I&#8217;m not wild about having to buy books that I already own so that I can read them this way, it seems that the payment for the IP has already been made, and that the actual cost of providing the content must tend towards zero. However there are so many free classics available that it will probably be a while before I&#8217;m hooked enough to fork over any actual money.</p>
<p>I&#8217;ll update in a while about what I thought of the experience, but I don&#8217;t think that it&#8217;ll be too much of a competitor to &#8216;real&#8217; books in the near future, but in the longer term, probably!</p>
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		<title>SG2011</title>
		<link>http://www.notionparallax.co.uk/blog/index.php/2011/03/sg2011/</link>
		<comments>http://www.notionparallax.co.uk/blog/index.php/2011/03/sg2011/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 31 Mar 2011 12:43:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Ben</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[architecture]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[copenhagen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[future]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[geek]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[hardware]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ruby]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[sensing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.notionparallax.co.uk/blog/?p=619</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[There is a lot of activity here in Copenhagen, I&#8217;ll update more about it soon when I&#8217;m a little less frazzled, but I think that this might well be the moment when the change in attitude towards real data that seems to have been building momentum in the industry actually forms into a &#8216;thing&#8217;!]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img class="alignleft" src="https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/_YfVzajWMais/TZRyHTXe0zI/AAAAAAAABYA/YpNZziHRGSc/s1152/P3310032.JPG" alt="coding hard at SG" width="200" /> There is a lot of activity here in Copenhagen, I&#8217;ll update more about it soon when I&#8217;m a little less frazzled, but I think that this might well be the moment when the change in attitude towards real data that seems to have been building momentum in the industry actually forms into a &#8216;thing&#8217;!</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<item>
		<title>Major study &#8211; for those with a lot of patience</title>
		<link>http://www.notionparallax.co.uk/blog/index.php/2011/01/major-study-for-those-with-a-lot-of-patience/</link>
		<comments>http://www.notionparallax.co.uk/blog/index.php/2011/01/major-study-for-those-with-a-lot-of-patience/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 21 Jan 2011 23:32:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Ben</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[architecture]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[diploma]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[eco stuff]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[future]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[major study]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[writing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.notionparallax.co.uk/blog/?p=509</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[There will be a version of this available soon in a massively reduced format, but for those of you with a penchant for punishment, or perhaps just an unquenchable interest in my ability to drivel on for a hundred pages, here&#8217;s my Major study in all it&#8217;s pdf glory!]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/8064971/2010%2004%2026%20Design%20under%20conditions%20of%20uncertainty.pdf"><img title="front page" src="http://www.notionparallax.co.uk/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/front-page.png" alt="" width="549" /></a></p>
<p>There will be a version of this available soon in a massively reduced format, but for those of you with a penchant for punishment, or perhaps just an unquenchable interest in my ability to drivel on for a hundred pages, here&#8217;s <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/8064971/2010%2004%2026%20Design%20under%20conditions%20of%20uncertainty.pdf">my Major study in all it&#8217;s pdf glory!</a></p>
<p><a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/8064971/2010%2004%2026%20Design%20under%20conditions%20of%20uncertainty.pdf"><img title="apple core calibration" src="http://www.notionparallax.co.uk/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/apple-core-calibration.png" alt="" width="549" /></a></p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>2</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>building performance quiz</title>
		<link>http://www.notionparallax.co.uk/blog/index.php/2010/03/building-performance-quiz/</link>
		<comments>http://www.notionparallax.co.uk/blog/index.php/2010/03/building-performance-quiz/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Mar 2010 15:52:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Ben</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[architecture]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[eco stuff]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[future]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[major study]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[web]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.notionparallax.co.uk/blog/?p=420</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Finally it is launched!! There have been a lot of long nights of faffing about with learning about the technology that runs the internet, But now the building performance quiz is live, working reasonably well in most browsers, and has started producing results! So &#8220;what is it?&#8221; I hear you ask! There are a couple [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img class="alignright" style="width: 300px;" src="http://bpquiz.co.uk/exampleAnswer.png" alt="example answer image" />Finally it is launched!!</p>
<p>There have been a lot of long nights of faffing about with learning about the technology that runs the internet, But now the <em>building performance quiz</em> is live, working reasonably well in most browsers, and has started producing results!</p>
<p>So &#8220;what is it?&#8221; I hear you ask!</p>
<p>There are a couple of reasons that I can&#8217;t tell you everything about it just yet. But for now it is a quiz that shows up what you know and don&#8217;t know about designing for building performance within the emerging low carbon economy.</p>
<p>The key thing is that a lot of people have a go at the quiz, so if you have a screen, and some time, then please do it, and if you have all of the above, and friends, then send it to all of them and beg them to do it too. Please!!!</p>
<p>have a go!</p>
<p><a style="font-size: 5em; font-family: Calibri, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; color: #0080c0;" href="http://bpquiz.co.uk/">BPquiz.co.uk</a></p>
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		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Status anxiety</title>
		<link>http://www.notionparallax.co.uk/blog/index.php/2009/10/status-anxiety/</link>
		<comments>http://www.notionparallax.co.uk/blog/index.php/2009/10/status-anxiety/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 25 Oct 2009 19:01:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Ben</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[architecture]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[future]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[major study]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[thinking]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.notionparallax.co.uk/blog/?p=299</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[For the last couple of years I&#8217;ve been becoming increasingly interested in what the future is going to be like, and the methods employed to predict its nature. Up until now it has been a fascinating sideline to my everyday activities of teaching and trying to solve design problems with computational tools. Although teaching is [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For the last couple of years I&#8217;ve been becoming increasingly interested in what the future is going to be like, and the methods employed to predict its nature.<br />
Up until now it has been a fascinating sideline to my everyday activities of teaching and trying to solve design problems with computational tools.<br />
Although teaching is generally thought of as being in the academic realm, it is really quite a practical job. One is engaged in the transference of knowledge and skills, which by the very nature of the introductory level of the course are a long way from the cutting edge of one&#8217;s work. Whilst the process of teaching is academically fascinating (and I hope to do some work centred around teaching and learning once this project is over) and the activity of teaching and seeing the teaching have a positive effect is immensely rewarding, it isn&#8217;t in the realm that currently consumes my time and passion.<br />
I have been gaining an escalating level of baseline nervousness over the last few months as this project builds momentum and it has been feeding off itself. This came to a head yesterday during a conversation with Angela about what to do at Christmas, and I realised that I&#8217;d rather work than talk about plans, and although I liked the abstract idea of something fun far off in the future, its planning was completely uninteresting – perhaps even offensive &#8211; to me.<br />
Angela diagnosed me as having status anxiety, and it dawned on me that this was probably a very accurate description of my malaise. In my day to day life I get to be modestly important. I have risen from the person who about this time of year in 2005 nearly wet his pants in excitement at being accepted to go to Smart Geometry, to being a 2009 tutor. In that realm people (at least show a pretence) take what I say seriously. But now I am being exposed to new ideas, whole new fields of ideas, rich histories of debate which I know nothing about. I am, once again, the 11 year old going off to big school for the first time.<br />
I read a very brief excerpt of Jeremy Till&#8217;s new book &#8216;Architecture depends, in which he takes the piss out of the Vitruvian mantra of &#8216;commodity, firmness and delight&#8217; as our philosophical cornerstone. I would imagine that profession of balloon modelling has a more insightful core phrase, and it made me wonder what it is that I, given my education, can actually offer to the rest of the research community. Surely it doesn&#8217;t boil down to the ability to draw relatively pretty pictures?</p>
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		<title>taking a crack at a policy</title>
		<link>http://www.notionparallax.co.uk/blog/index.php/2009/10/taking-a-crack-at-a-policy/</link>
		<comments>http://www.notionparallax.co.uk/blog/index.php/2009/10/taking-a-crack-at-a-policy/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 21 Oct 2009 08:49:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Ben</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[future]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[thinking]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.notionparallax.co.uk/blog/?p=277</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This photo has been popping up all over the internet today. It has galvanised me into writing down an idea that I&#8217;ve been kicking about for a few weeks. I&#8217;ll try and be as structured as I can and rant as little as possible. Starting with a pair of premises that I believe to be [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="http://www.treehugger.com/chris-jordan-midway-atoll1.jpg" alt="albatross chick full of plastic" />
</p>
<p>This photo has been popping up all over the <a href="http://www.chrisjordan.com">internet</a> today. It has galvanised me into writing down an idea that I&#8217;ve been kicking about for a few weeks. I&#8217;ll try and be as structured as I can and rant as little as possible.</p>
<p>Starting with a pair of premises that I believe to be factual.</p>
<ol>
<li>Global fish stocks are severely depleated. I don&#8217;t know much about Pacific stocks, but I&#8217;d imagine that there is a similar situation to the Atlantic stocks.</li>
<li>There are floating islands of plastic in the ocean <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Pacific_Garbage_Patch">gyres</a>.</li>
</ol>
<p>some that are slightly more open to debate, but I still consider to be facts.</p>
<ul>
<li>
    There is likely to be a collapse of the fishing industry if fish stocks reach a terminal point in their populations. </li>
<li>They are also extremely heavily subsidised, up to 50% of the industries income is from subsidies.</li>
<li>Fish and other marine animals, particularly filter feeders, are being found with significant ammounts of plastic inside them.</li>
<li>Plastic in oceans degrades to smaller pieces of plastic as the polymer chains unwind from each other, but very rarely to monomers, or anything that can be digested.</li>
</ul>
<p>So what can be done about this? Obviously, the simplest answer to the problem of the pastic is to stop putting it into the sea, but this is a global problem, and most of the plastic is not deliberatly put there. </p>
<p>Also we need to stop the part of fishing that involves taking fish out of the water and put some effort into trying to rebuild fish stocks. Probably somethign like 10 or 20 years of not fishing.</p>
<p>&quot;Oh no!&quot; I hear the cries from the fishing industry in disgust and terror for their livelyhoods. &quot;You&#8217;ll bancrupt us, and even if you just pay us to stay at home* we&#8217;ll loose our craft &#8211; the next generation will become 7-11 staff&quot;. (*probably not that much more expensive than paying them to go and fish as the current subsidies do.)</p>
<p>My suggestion is that we should redirect the activities of the  currently unprofitable fishing industry into fishing for plastic. The deep sea trawlers have the technology and infrastructure to go for long term trips to collect plastic waste. The low hanging fruit in this situation is the large pieces, i.e. plastic bags, detergent bottles, etc. so that&#8217;d be a good start. The onboard processing capacity could be put to use in catagorising the plastics, but also once the easy catch of large plastic is taken, the factory ships can set to work on filtering out the much smaller particles of plastic that are in suspention. This would maintain the fleet, and the fleet&#8217;s skills. The plastic that was landed could either be recycled or burnt to produce energy.</p>
<p>This would provide a rest for the fish, and also improve their habitat, so that when the stocks have sufficiently recovered, the polymer:meat ratio iside fish is a bit closer to what we&#8217;d hope it&#8217;d be.</p>
<p>I&#8217;ll probably revisit this as I get a bit better at scenario planning and future thinking. weigh in in the comments if you have anything at all to say, and if you are watching in black and white on facebook, <a href="http://www.notionparallax.co.uk/blog/index.php/2009/10/taking-a-crack-at-a-policy/">go here to watch in green and whit</a>e.</p>
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		<title>The future is important – I&#8217;m going to live there soon.</title>
		<link>http://www.notionparallax.co.uk/blog/index.php/2009/10/the-future-is-important-%e2%80%93-im-going-to-live-there-soon/</link>
		<comments>http://www.notionparallax.co.uk/blog/index.php/2009/10/the-future-is-important-%e2%80%93-im-going-to-live-there-soon/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 13 Oct 2009 10:17:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Ben</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[architecture]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[diploma]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[enhancement]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[future]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[geek]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[thinking]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[writing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.notionparallax.co.uk/blog/?p=264</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Most people will have realised that I don&#8217;t tend to do things the normal way. This extends to education too &#8211; I&#8217;ve taken 4 years off in the midst of a 5 year course (and 2 more before it even started). See this old post. This year I&#8217;m back at school to do the last [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Most people will have realised that I don&#8217;t tend to do things the normal way. This extends to education too &#8211; I&#8217;ve taken 4 years off in the midst of a 5 year course (and 2 more before it even started). <a title="this needs a bit of updating now, there is ANOTHER year out to contend with!" href="http://www.notionparallax.co.uk/blog/index.php/2008/05/what-on-earth-have-i-been-up-to/">See this old post</a>.<br />
This year I&#8217;m back at school to do the last year before I become a &#8216;real person&#8217; and start paying council tax etc. Oxford Brookes has a terrific system where they&#8217;ve figured out that you are probably about sick of design studios by the end of your 4<sup>th</sup> year, and are ripe for a bit of &#8211; shh don&#8217;t say it too loudly &#8211; <em>learning</em>.<br />
This is my draft proposal for what I&#8217;m going to do. It is a bit woolly, as it covers up that I really don&#8217;t actually know what it is that I am going to do, and it is only barely related to architecture.</p>
<blockquote><p>The 21st century is hailed by many as a &#8216;make or break&#8217; time for humanity, the tipping point between a technological utopia and a crushing blow to our species&#8217; capacity to flourish. While every effort must be made to steer a path towards a bright future, contingencies for both extremes, as well as the vast, but discontinuous, range of circumstances and possibilities between must be considered.<br />
Only in a very perverse utopia, or particularly devastating catastrophe, does architecture cease to be pertinent (the importance of architects is less certain!).</p>
<p>The risk of global catastrophe, ranging from super volcanoes and runaway global warming to doomsday machines or bio-terrorism, is non trivial. The contingencies in place to contain or manage these events may (if successful) affect societies as much or more than the event itself. Conversely the potential for technology to enhance our lives beyond recognition is considerable. Indeed, it has already been realised. Genetic modification, cognitive enhancement and life extension are just a few of the possibilities.</p>
<p>With these great threats and opportunities come ethical questions about how, and whether, to manage the risks that the implementation of these opportunities (or whether to implement them at all!). While forecasting has its perils, as recent events in the financial sector have shown, it is foolhardy not to prepare to manage the outcomes of potential cataclysms. The continually diverging tree of all possible events makes the odds of a particular event, even in the relatively near future, vanishingly small. We need better tools. I intend learn how to develop a better understanding of the future, and the methods that can be used to improve predictions. Architecture is one of our most persistent projections into the future, there ought to be some consideration of what that future is going be like.</p>
<p>If getting past the next 90 years is really as fraught as is claimed (disasters, divergent societies, etc.) then we have a lot of work to do to get there, but it would make me feel better if I had a bit of an idea of what we&#8217;ll find when we do.</p></blockquote>
<p>If you have any thoughts on things I ought to be looking at then let me know.</p>
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		<title>&#8216;proper&#8217; books</title>
		<link>http://www.notionparallax.co.uk/blog/index.php/2009/10/proper-books/</link>
		<comments>http://www.notionparallax.co.uk/blog/index.php/2009/10/proper-books/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Oct 2009 17:33:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Ben</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[future]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[geek]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[thinking]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.notionparallax.co.uk/blog/?p=257</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I got a bit of a telling off from Andrew when I was talking to him last week for not having any proper books on my list. There were some, but I just forgot to put them in. The Na&#239;ve Set Theory is from the library and is a beautiful pre 1977 version with gold [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I got a bit of a telling off from Andrew when I was talking to him last week for not having any proper books on my list. There were some, but I just forgot to put them in.</p>
<p><iframe src="http://rcm-uk.amazon.co.uk/e/cm?lt1=_blank&#038;bc1=FFFFFF&#038;IS2=1&#038;npa=1&#038;bg1=FFFFFF&#038;fc1=000000&#038;lc1=0000FF&#038;t=notioparal-21&#038;o=2&#038;p=8&#038;l=as1&#038;m=amazon&#038;f=ifr&#038;md=0M5A6TN3AXP2JHJBWT02&#038;asins=0807604534" style="width:120px;height:240px;" scrolling="no" marginwidth="0" marginheight="0" frameborder="0"></iframe><iframe src="http://rcm-uk.amazon.co.uk/e/cm?lt1=_blank&#038;bc1=FFFFFF&#038;IS2=1&#038;npa=1&#038;bg1=FFFFFF&#038;fc1=000000&#038;lc1=0000FF&#038;t=notioparal-21&#038;o=2&#038;p=8&#038;l=as1&#038;m=amazon&#038;f=ifr&#038;md=0M5A6TN3AXP2JHJBWT02&#038;asins=0387900926" style="width:120px;height:240px;" scrolling="no" marginwidth="0" marginheight="0" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>The Na&iuml;ve Set Theory is from the library and is a beautiful pre 1977 version with gold blocked text on the cover, and is for the course I&#8217;m about to do (starting tomorrow night &#8211; so I&#8217;ll probably post up my homework).</p>
<p>The General Systems Theory seems to be out of print, but I&#8217;ve got what I think it a first edition from a web bookshop.</p>
<p>They are going to make a bit of a dent in my time compared to the other pop-science that is on that list!</p>
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