18
Apr
2011
Hydraulic economics
I walked to and from work today and listened to Arnold Kling talking to Econtalk about patterns of sustainable specialisation and trade. Quite apart from how enjoyable it is to be able to walk to work in the sun, it makes my brain tick over nicely.
They were discussing why certain economic models didn’t work, and while they were pontificating about some details it occurred to me that you might be able to think of mathematical models that aproximate the phenomena that economics is concerned with by using fluids.
Straight up mathematical models give one, absolute, answer. It is as if they worked over infinite time, and took an infinitely large sample. Most things take time to settle down; I first came across this idea when I was thinking a lot about search methods and writing genetic algorithms. I was frustrated that the computer wouldn’t spit out the answer to my question, but instead spiraled towards a best guess eventualy.
This morning’s idea was that an economic or physical system could be modeled as a hydraulic system filled with a load of different fluids of different viscosities. So as you try to move from one value to another it takes time to get there, and this lag causes stresses in the system, preventing some things from happening, causing asymmetries in others, and maybe even forcing things to happen that wouldn’t otherwise happen.
Not being especially mathematical I haven’t been able to formulate this properly I’ll leave it to your imagination, but it make it easier for me to think about things.
12
Apr
2011
The wisdom of stairs – why I don’t eat at McDonalds
It has probably been about ten years since I ate a McDonalds meal, in the beginning it was probably some sort of youthful, No Logo inspired, idealism – probably reinforced by watching Super Size Me. I do vaguely remember quite enjoying eating BigMacs and especially enjoying their fries, but through a combination of the health implications and the globalisation/ethical concerns I stopped eating their food.
I now find myself ten years later, still not eating their food, and trying to come up with a rational explanation why. I’ve found that especially difficult, and I’m still not convinced that I’ve managed it.
The ethical concerns that I had are now not really an issue. Their produce, particularly the beef, now comes from within the country (at least in the UK), so rain forest slash and burn isn’t an issue. Their staff aren’t being ‘exploited’ they are all free to leave and go and work somewhere else or take benefits – so actually they have more options than if they didn’t work there.
The health concerns still seem valid, but given that I have a tendency to eat terrible food when I’m working hard, forget meals on a regular basis, and generally have a pretty horrific nutritional track record, I don’t see how eating an extra value meal once in a while could cause me any extra harm (it might even be better for me than eating a big bag of crisps instead of dinner).
Puya, one of my students at UTS, mentioned something in a blog post about social collapse that gave me a passable reason for my behaviour. In his presentation at the Global Catastrophic Risks conference, Robin Hanson mentioned the wisdom of stairs1.
The main reason to be careful when you walk up a flight of stairs is not that you mightslip and have to retrace one step, but rather that the first slip might cause a second slip, and so on until you fall dozens of steps and break your neck
I suppose that my argument is that as I have a very addictive (but lazy) personality2, I might start eating at McDonalds and turn it into a habit. This seems to be a weak argument given my feelings about Starbucks (which I’ll probably write about soon too) but for now I’m going to play it safe just in case.
11
Mar
2011
A thought about starsigns
Star signs are supposed to dictate your temperament and behaviour patterns based on the positions of various celestial bodies at your time of birth. I’m very sceptical of this reasoning, but while I was examining my reasons for being sceptical I came up with a possible reason that may have an impact on the correlation between date of birth and type of person.
Birthday parties!
Birthday parties are important to kids, they serve to build social bonds, and also to signal that you are a cool and popular person. As a child your birthday parties either fall within term time, or outside it. This will affect your chances of inviting a large group of your peers to your party. Your party will also be affected by the season; you can’t have a beach party if you are a winter baby, and you won’t have much luck with skiing if you are born in the summer.
Summer parties tend to have a large number of guests and be outside, whereas winter parties tend to be inside have fewer guests because they are more expensive. larger parties may promote weak ties, and small ones develop intimate bonds. This pattern is repeated annually during the formative years.
I think that this may be a strong enough common factor in people’s upbringing that it may shape their personality. A good way to test would be if the correlation between people’s personality test scores and their dates of birth was flipped in the southern hemisphere. Has anyone seen this done?
10
Apr
2010
UK emissions attributable to the built environment?
I’m trying to write about how much the built environment contributes to UK CO2 emissions, and i’m finding it to be very murky.
There is a figure of about 47 to 50%-ish but nobody references where they got this from, and nobody then subdivides it to show what that is made up of.
I’m on the bus at the moment, so i don’t really have access to the figures, but agriculture gets a big chunk, as does electricity generation, cement manufacturing gets a chunk, and transport gets a bit, and then the rest is left to ‘the built environment’.
As far as I can tell, if it has a roof, it is built environment. This means that that 50% that gets attributed to “something that architects really should be doing something about” includes everything from all the computers in offices around the country, to aluminium smelters (which consume so much electricity that they often have their own power station!).
What I’m after is the percentage of UK CO2 emissions that are attributable to buildings, broken down into useful chunks. How much power does the building consume? To run the lifts, the HVAC, the lights?
There are a lot of grey areas here, like how much architects should get involved with specifying the IT infrastructure, so that it produces less heat, and therefore allows a reduction in cooling loads, but for the moment I just want simple numbers.
Does anyone have anything they can push my way? There’s a pint/mars bar in it for you!!
2
Apr
2010
Simple English
I’m going to start a new ‘idea auditing’ process for my thoughts. English Wikipedia has a parallel site in a language called Simple English. In the explanation page the quote is “The language is simple, but the ideas don’t have to be“.
The articles are written using a somewhat restricted word list, and it should force me to think clearly about what I really mean.
I’ve found that when I explain something in simple terms, I generally gain a better understanding of it, which allows me to put the richness back in with the complete range of expression offered by unrestricted use of English.
Anyone else up for joining in?